coffee grounds

negative polarity

With the polls showing the presidential race slightly to Bush's advantage, the result is all going to come down to campaigning, the debates and turnout.

Strictly on the merits of Bush's record in office, this should have been any Democrats race to lose by now. That it's even close is a failure of the Democratic party to relentlessly sell the idea that the President has failed.

The objective facts of

• $250 billion spent for little strategic advancement and many opportunity costs in really fighting terrorism.
  
• More than one million jobs lost
  
• Stagnant real incomes for the majority of the population
  
• Increases in poverty
  
• Declining health insurance coverage
  
• Huge increases in the federal government's budget deficit.
  

are indisputable. You can argue that the President has less influence on economic, social and military outcomes than many voters would acknowledge, and you'd be right. And to expect life to be ever onward and upward for everyone is a little too optimistic, but a steady increase in the standing of the average person and family over four years is something American voters have come to expect.

That they are giving Bush a pass on this mediocre record is simply stunning, but also a tribute to what an effective political operation he is part of.

Bush has taken advantage of several key facts about American politics;

• that many people are not really interested in politics and pay attention at the most superficial level
  
• that much of the press is happy to play the role of stenographer rather than analyst
  
• that many people in America over-rate the threat of Islamist terrorism in the sense that the risk to many Americans is really very low
  
• under-appreciate that it is a danger that has killed many people outside the United States since 9/11 and is not uniquely an American problem
  
• many people are ignorant of the dangerous incompetence that is the administration's policy towards North Korea, to say nothing of Iran.
  

It's not as if Kerry is a terrible campaigner; there have surely been many worse in the modern era, but in comparison to Bill Clinton and George Bush his political instincts are lacking. And thus the episodic panic in Democratic ranks.

One of the saving graces the Democrats have left is that there still appear to be 15-20% of the electorate who are persuadable, some because they haven't yet paid much attention to the campaign.

But to take wrap up the 3/4 of persuadables it will take to win the White House, the Democrats have to get themselves a succinct message first.

That message has to be the failure of Bush as president. Some in the press will wring their hands about this being negative campaigning, and may even point to polls showing that voters disapprove of negative campaigns.

Voters may say they don't like negative campaigns, but there's precious little evidence that too many people are concerned enough to let it affect their vote.

Drawing attention to Bush's record may be negative campaigning, which is negative, but it's also campaigning on the issues. These two things are not mutually exclusive, contrary to what you may hear in the press. And it's Kerry's best option. That has to be positive.

Posted by robe0419 at September 16, 2004 10:37 PM