Screen illustrations

Malthus, Marx and Miro:

Population (in millions) by world regions, 1950 - 95 (table 1)

Total population: South America, 1900-1990 (steeper slope, faster growth)

Mesoamerica and Latin Caribbean, 1900-1990 (steeper slope, faster growth)

Demographic transition: phase shifts in mortality and fertility (see table 5)

Two social philosophers: Malthus and Marx (p. 7)

The technocrat, Carment Miro, founding director of CELADE, UN Demographic Center for LA

The mortality transitions (Table 3)

Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, table 3 (unequal in 1900; now converging)

Mortality transition in Mexico: gap with the USA (e0)

Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 3% in 1992 (still more than 3 times the US rate).

The fertility transitions

Two fertility transitions--early and middle--compared with USA

Revolutions and fertility: booms, busts, and transitions

Fertility decline in Latin America, 1952 - 1992 (table 4)

Obstacles to fertility transition

Mexico’s fertility transition: 7 children in 1970 to 3.2 in 1992

Fertility in Mexico: A comparison with the USA

Mexico’s fertility in 1971 lagged USA by a century

Very rapid fertility decline, 1970-1992.

Educations effects: the case of Mexico, 1990

Total fertility by age, a model: no restraints on childbearing.

Total fertility by age, Mexico 1990: all married women

… women with post-secondary education (Mexico 1990)

… women with post-secondary education, and secondary

… women with post-, secondary and primary education

… women with post-, secondary, and no education at all

… Mexican women who speak only Spanish

… Spanish vs. Spanish and an indigenous language

… female speakers of an indigenous language vs Span. & Span+Ind.

Conclusions: Optimism.

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