Having put $2 down on Kerry winning 311-227 when the polls showed Bush further ahead, I'm now more nervous about that with the race seemingly tighter.
I can't remember feeling more nervous about an election in my lifetime. All the recent New Zealand elections were clearly going one way or the other well before the day. In 2000, despite putting a bottle of wine on Gore in an early-September wager, on the day I was prepared for Bush to win. After all, the polls showed him well up.
Not today -- it's all tied up, and it's just unknown.
Polls are great, exit polls can be useful, but real voting returns are best. I think the first early indication we'll get tomorrow night will be Virginia. Virginia closes early (7pm EST/6pm CST). There's no Senate or gubernatorial race that could have coat-tails.
Bush has never really established a big lead there. Virginia has a bit of everything; liberal urban areas close to D.C., swathes of suburb a little further out, rural areas, migrants, blacks, and a substantial military population. If Kerry comes within 1 or 2%, or even wins, we're looking at a big Kerry victory. On the other hand, if Bush pulls away by upwards of 5% it could be a grim night for the Democrats.
Not sure if I've already linked to it, but a really useful guide to what to expect hour-by-hour Tuesday night is here.
Vote early. Vote once. Take a friend to the polls. Celebrate appropriately.
Posted by robe0419 at November 1, 2004 02:22 PM | TrackBack