TNR has an article "Parent Trap," (subs only, sorry) which argues that because the Democrats did poorly in suburban counties with high fertility and high in-migration, that "Democrats have little choice. Demographics will not save them. On the contrary, the Democrats' task now is to try to save themselves from demographics."
It's the obverse of Ruy Teixeira's argument that there is an emerging Democratic majority, because the population is becoming more educated, and there are more Latino immigrants; and historically these groups have voted strongly for the Democrats.
Count me as skeptic of both arguments.
Both theses seem to rely in projecting voting behavior at one point in time forward into the future, ignoring two sources of change in partisan affiliation
(1) Political parties respond to what the electorate wants so as to capture their votes.
(2) Voters change their opinions over their lifetime as their needs, wants, and values change.
Both versions of the "demography is the Democrat's destiny" thesis are curiously static.
Posted by robe0419 at December 3, 2004 03:41 PM | TrackBack