finding VP nominees
One of the other interesting things about the Edwards nomination is that it breaks five presidential election cycles in which the VP nominee[s] was/were not part of the presidential nomination campaign.
In part this is another way of looking at Josh Marshall's point that you have to go back to 1980 to find the last time when the VP nominee was obvious and widely predicted at the time.
If something happens five times in a row that suggests something structural rather than random, such as
- changing balance of the two parties at the state level
- greater perceived need to balance tickets with an "outsider" and an "insider" than there was prior to 1960.
- greater perceived demand for unexpected choice.
Edwards pick doesn't necessarily invalidate this observation, since
- The Democrats have been out of power in most of the large states for the 1990s, leaving them with a relatively thin bench to pick from.
- Although "Senator" doesn't connote "outsider", Edwards' profile as a new Senator previously uninterested in politics does. And his campaign story was about the inside/outside Two Americas divide.
- Having set us all up with the little Gephardt media boomlet the last few days people Edwards now does appear to be the unexpected choice.
Posted by robe0419 at July 6, 2004 10:59 AM
