James Taranto, who usually sees Republican leaning signs in the tea leaves, has an unusually perceptive column about the way pundits read mysterious things into the historical electoral behavior of different states, and what that might mean for the election.
.... Mr. Bush was the first Republican since James Garfield in 1880 to win the White House without carrying California. That record would not have fallen had Al Gore received a few thousand more votes in Florida--but in that case, Mr. Gore would have become the first Democrat ever elected without carrying Missouri.As it was, the Show-Me State became the most durable bellwether in America, having last backed a loser, Adlai Stevenson, in 1956. Missouri took that torch from Delaware, which voted for Thomas Dewey in 1948, then backed winners from 1952 through 1996 before falling to Mr. Gore in 2000.
The problem is that we have so few presidential elections, and few people have demonstrated an interest in expanding the effective sample size for making inferences.
Posted by robe0419 at July 27, 2004 1:44 PM