Most all of the speculation about potential Supreme Court vacancies has been about if and when Chief Justice Rehnquist will retire, or whether Sandra Day O'Connor might pack it in at the sprightly age of 75.
Since either or both would very likely be replaced by someone quite conservative, the biggest change to the Supreme Court would come with the exit of one of the liberal justices. Thus, Rehnquist's departure might have the least impact, while O'Connor's "swing vote" departure could be quite important.
The real question is what if John Paul Stevens dies. After all, the man is 85 years old. He's in good health, and has a decent job with good benefits, a relatively flexible schedule, and little physical labor. But really, the force of mortality being what it is, even people in good health can just bite it with little warning at that age.
Public taste and media restraint being what they are we're unlikely to see much speculation on the chances of this happening, and its impact on the Court.
Posted by robe0419 at June 28, 2005 12:27 PM