Notice the governor much this legislative session in Minnesota? For sure, he popped up to sign a stadium bill, and made a bit of show of going to the not-so-political fishing opener, but that's about it. Maybe Pawlenty was doing something behind the scenes, but most of the reported action in getting a bonding bill together was done by the legislature. I'm sure we'll see Pawlenty turn out for Memorial Day, 4th of July and State Fair events, but beyond that don't expect to see much of him during summer. And perhaps after.
Keeping out of the way and not doing or saying anything significant or controversial is probably going to be the path to re-election for Tim Pawlenty. I'm guessing that will probably include keeping to himself on the campaign trail, and steering a little clear of Michele Bachman (R-6th District candidate) and Mark Kennedy (R-Senate candidate).
The amazing thing about the Minnesota political scene this year is how crowded and noisy it could get. This is quite the advantage for an incumbent governor. First up, you have a Senate race that will draw national attention, and could get ugly quickly. Mark Kennedy is trying to walk away from his established record as a loyal Bush Republican. Even if he succeeds in doing that, he must start out at a slight disadvantage to Amy Klobuchar in the Senate race. Klobuchar just has to run a competent campaign and take advantage of the slight advantage that Democrats have shown in Minnesota at the last two presidential elections, and she will win. If Kennedy looks like he is going down, look for Pawlenty to distance himself.
Similarly, in the 6th district where there were about 12,000 voters who voted for both Patty Wetterling and George Bush, I imagine that Pawlenty is not going to embrace Michele Bachmann on the campaign trail straight away. There are enough people out there who could potentially vote for Wetterling and Pawlenty that Pawlenty will probably keep his distance for now.
The 5th district is highly unlikely to go Republican, but with Mike Erlandson now stepping into the DFL primary, that contest will also soak up political interest and coverage. That's good news for an incumbent governor who wants the gubernatorial race to slip into the background.
This analysis is predicated on the assumption that so long as a governor hasn't made a major screw-up, incumbency and the name recognition and deference it conveys, is an advantage. Say what you will about Tim Pawlenty's policies but he hasn't made major screw-ups. Even if you disagree with the social spending cuts that were made, many of them affected people who would already vote for the Democrats. The electoral impact was probably slight. Pawlenty could campaign with Bachmann and Kennedy, but given that they're not certain to win their races, the risk averse thing to do is to stay away from them.
The last factor to consider in assessing Pawlenty's re-election chances and strategy is the DFL contest for the gubernatorial nomination. Currently, there are three candidates: Steve Kelley, Becky Lourey and Mike Hatch. Kelley has pledged to abide by the endorsement process at the DFL convention in Rochester from June 9-11, but the other two have not. Thus, it's likely there will be a primary for the DFL nomination in September. This is great news for Pawlenty, since it means he might not have to engage his opponent until September. (By the way, the websites are revealing. Mike Hatch's looks like it was designed in about ... 2001, Kelley's in 2003, and only Lourey's seems up-to-date and professional in its internet aesthetics)
Kelley seems like a decent, earnest man with an interest in policy, and representing a suburban district might be placed to pick up votes in the suburbs. But if his effective campaign season is less than two months, and with potentially competitive races in the 6th District and Senate, it's not clear he's a man who will get his voice heard above the melee. There's only so much attention people have to give to politics, and some races just get ignored. This nearly always benefits incumbents.
Hatch's website makes it quite clear what his strategy is going to be: attack Tim Pawlenty. Hatch is clearly a political animal. There's nothing wrong on a personal level with being motivated to run for another office just because it's there and you enjoy the contest. But it's not clear that gives voters a sufficient reason to dump the incumbent. If Hatch is the DFL nominee we can be quite confident he'll raise the noise level in the race, get coverage, and go on the attack against Pawlenty. Hatch and Pawlenty clearly don't like each other, and I wouldn't be surprised if Pawlenty climbs down into the ditch to wrestle with Hatch if that's the race we get. But this kind of strategy is always risky for the challenger, if voters just decide it's a plague on both parties, the incumbent retains some advantages.
That brings us to Becky Lourey. She's different, and I don't mean that in a lily-livered Midwestern way of saying I don't like her. This week's City Pages article is a good one; clearly impressed with Lourey and her biography and values, but rightly skeptical of whether she can raise her name recognition in a campaign. While I could absolutely see her getting the DFL nomination in June and September, it's not quite clear what the path to victory in November is. Can she raise money? Can she get free media attention? As a rural woman who supports gun rights and opposes the Iraq war, Lourey confounds some of the normal stereotypes of Minnesota Democrats. This is still the state that elected Jesse Ventura 8 years ago, and while Jesse was a noisier candidate, it does indicate there's still an inkling for the unconventional populist candidate in Minnesota politics. Moreover, because she defies easy stereotyping Lourey could potentially be the more challenging candidate for Pawlenty to run against because she's different. And Minnesota could still be a state small enough that a candidate will go quite far by making a supreme effort to meet as many voters as possible. If you start early enough this kind of campaign can be effective and difficult to defend against.
All in all, Pawlenty is probably going to win re-election by 2-3% of the vote, but a strong flowover tide from the Senate race could overwhelm him. And if it gets really close the DFL candidates all have the advantage of having last names further up the alphabet than he does ...
Posted by eroberts at May 26, 2006 6:50 AM