The answer: half as many children/others(and almost twice as many couples)

Observed “Children” (plus others)

• 3.8 = 1930 w/1930 marriage rates

• 1.6 = 1540 w/1540 rates

• 2.2 real difference in favor of 1930

Counterfactual “Children” (plus others)

• 2.0 = 1930 w/1540 marriage rates

• 1.6 = 1540 w/1540 rates

• 0.4 difference if 1930 had 1540 rates

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