Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts in PDR 3/96)?
HIV/AIDS is a pandemic-- 20 million cases worldwide: 2/3rds in Africa, 20% in S & SE Asia.
AIDS deaths rates will continue to rise, reaching, by 2005, 0.3-0.4 per thousand population world-wide.
Behavioral change is the best hope; rates of increase in infection are slowing everywhere except in Asia.