Appendix
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Appendix 1. Data inputs for the inverse projection models by sex
The following instructions were used with the Populate software program to project various scenarios discussed in the paper (see McCaa and Brignoli, 1989) available at: http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa/programs/programs.htm
Females Mexico Populate instructions: annual projections with counterfactual scenarios (absolute figures are in thousands)
year,1895,1940,1F,6349.536,27,90
births revolution, .048 , .048!1905 , .046!1910 , .045 , .048 baby boomlet, .041 , .040!1917 , .040 , .044 , .046!1920 , .045!1925 , .042!1927, .042, .044!1930 , .045!1935 , .043!1940
deaths revolution, .036 , .035!1905, .033!1910 , .036 , .046 , .050 , .052 , .047 , .042 , .034 , .036, .028, .032!1920 , .030!1925 , .034 , .036 , .034, .028!1930 , .0267!1935 , .0235!1940
births reform counterfactual , .048 , .048!1905 , .046!1910 , .046!1919 , .046!1920 , .045!1925 , .044!1930 , .045!1935 , .044!1940
deaths reform counterfactual , .036 , .035!1905, .033!1910 , .033!1917, .036, .028, .032!1920 , .030!1925 , .028!1930 , .0267!1935 , .0235!1940
births 4 points below best fit, .044 , .044!1905 , .042!1910 , .041 , .044 baby boomlet, .037 , .036!1917 , .036 , .040 , .042!1920 , .041!1925 , .038!1927, .038, .040!1930 , .041!1935 , .040!1940
deaths 4 points below best fit, .032 , .031!1905, .029!1910 , .032 , .042 , .046 , .048 , .043 , .038 , .030 , .032, .024, .028!1920 , .026!1925 , .030 , .032 , .030, .024!1930 , .0227!1935 , .0195!1940
births 4 points above best fit, .052 , .052!1905 , .050!1910 , .049 , .052 baby boomlet, .045 , .044!1917 , .044 , .048 , .050!1920 , .049!1925 , .046!1927, .046, .048!1930 , .049!1935 , .048!1940
deaths 4 points above best fit, .040 , .039!1905, .037!1910 , .040 , .050 , .054 , .056 , .051 , .046 , .038 , .040, .032, .036!1920 , .034!1925 , .038 , .040 , .038, .032!1930 , .0307!1935 , .0275!1940
age structure 1895 (stable cbr 51 cdr 39), .0385, .0327, .0296, .0276, .0263, .0254, .0247, .0241, .0236, .0232, .0227, .0223, .0219, .0215, .0210, .0206, .0202, .0197, .0193, .0189, .0184, .0180, .0175, .0171, .0167, .0163, .0159, .0155, .0151, .0147, .0143, .0139, .0136, .0132, .0129, .0125, .0122, .0119, .0116, .0113, .0110, .0107, .0104, .0101, .0099, .0096, .0093, .0091, .0088, .0085, .0083, .0080, .0078, .0075, .0072, .0070, .0067, .0064, .0061, .0058, .0055, .0052, .0049, .0046, .0043, .0040, .0037, .0034, .0031, .0027, .0024, .0021, .0019, .0016, .0013, .0011, .0009, .0007, .0006, .0004, .0003, .0002, .0002, .0001, .0001, .0000, .0000, .0000, .0000, .0000
qx age structure of mortality model (female west e0=27) lower bound, .34722, .11395, .05280, .02847, .01726, .01179, .00913, .00797, .00764, .00778, .00818, .00874, .00937, .01004, .01071, .01137, .01202, .01264, .01323, .01380, .01434, .01486, .01535, .01582, .01627, .01671, .01714, .01757, .01798, .01840, .01882, .01925, .01968, .02013, .02060, .02110, .02162, .02217, .02276, .02338, .02406, .02479, .02558, .02643, .02736, .02836, .02946, .03064, .03193, .03334, .03487, .03653, .03834, .04031, .04245, .04478, .04731, .05005, .05303, .05626, .05976, .06354, .06764, .07207, .07686, .08202, .08759, .09358, .10003, .10695, .11438, .12234, .13085, .13994, .14963, .15995, .17092, .18255, .19485, .20785, .22154, .23593, .25101, .26679, .28324, .30034, .31808, .33641, .35529, .37468, .5
qx age structure of mortality model (female west e0=77) upper bound, .01245, .00674, .00347, .00171, .00081, .00038, .00019, .00011, .00010, .00010, .00011, .00013, .00015, .00016, .00018, .00020, .00021, .00023, .00024, .00026, .00027, .00029, .00031, .00032, .00034, .00036, .00039, .00041, .00044, .00047, .00051, .00055, .00059, .00065, .00070, .00077, .00084, .00092, .00102, .00112, .00124, .00137, .00152, .00169, .00188, .00209, .00233, .00259, .00289, .00323, .00360, .00402, .00449, .00502, .00561, .00627, .00702, .00785, .00877, .00981, .01097, .01227, .01373, .01535, .01716, .01919, .02144, .02396, .02677, .02989, .03337, .03724, .04155, .04632, .05161, .05748, .06396, .07113, .07902, .08772, .09726, .10773, .11917, .13165, .14522, .15994, .17583, .19295, .21130, .23091, .3
migration female net (thousands), -1,-1!1899, -3.2,-3.2!1904, -3.4,-3.4!1909, -5, -5!1914, -15,-15!1919, -10,-10!1924, -6,-6!1929, 3.3,3.3!1935,-2!1940
crisis, .040!1895, .040!1940
end
Males Mexico populate instructions: annual projections with counterfactual scenarios (absolute figures in thousands)
year,1895,1940,1M, 6282.892, 27, 90
births revolution (from female projection), 321.9048, 325.836, 329.8176, 333.8496, 338.0328, 342.216, 346.3992, 350.7336, 355.1184, 359.604, 364.14, 365.70366, 367.28916, 368.7957, 370.32072, 371.8134, 367.55775, 394.0272, 335.1873, 329.23044, 324.338175, 319.99401, 318.486, 319.494, 354.354, 375.4842, 378.70875, 382.0824, 385.55496, 389.07708, 392.8365, 384.2181, 373.6152, 376.0407, 388.6512, 403.2798, 411.88875, 420.88536, 430.22721, 440.01216, 450.198, 456.71136, 463.57017, 470.72214, 478.16223, 485.793
births reform counterfactual, 321.9048, 325.836, 329.8176, 333.8496, 338.0328, 342.216, 346.3992, 350.7336, 355.1184, 359.604, 364.14, 365.70366, 367.28916, 368.7957, 370.32072, 371.8134, 376.4502, 381.1836, 385.9653, 390.8436, 395.5287, 400.0206, 404.5608, 408.5697, 413.6412, 419.7753, 423.43245, 427.23324, 431.12748, 435.16074, 439.425, 443.86944, 448.49091, 453.23964, 458.11311, 463.2936, 473.14995, 483.4494, 494.19699, 505.39776, 517.05675, 524.54304, 532.36344, 540.5589, 549.07671, 557.865
births no mortality cost counter-factual, 321.9048, 325.836, 329.8176, 333.8496, 338.0328, 342.216, 346.3992, 350.7336, 355.1184, 359.604, 364.14, 365.70366, 367.28916, 368.7957, 370.32072, 371.8134, 368.0775, 397.7568, 343.49595, 343.546665, 344.069775, 343.46277, 343.602, 344.904, 382.5822, 405.4302, 408.95736, 412.62984, 416.39745, 420.2583, 424.35225, 415.962225, 406.7784, 411.894, 427.3899, 444.0282, 453.47211, 463.35618, 473.63862, 484.37088, 495.558, 502.76352, 510.25968, 518.08806, 526.2894, 534.7188
births no lost births counter-factual, 321.9048, 325.836, 329.8176, 333.8496, 338.0328, 342.216, 346.3992, 350.7336, 355.1184, 359.604, 364.14, 365.70366, 367.28916, 368.7957, 370.32072, 371.8134, 375.9189, 377.6094, 376.6434, 374.5665, 372.8277, 372.7311, 375.0012, 378.4788, 383.1639, 388.7667, 392.12586, 395.63244, 399.18858, 402.9354, 406.8225, 410.04768, 411.96351, 413.7525, 416.57616, 420.7896, 429.80301, 439.1604, 448.91238, 459.1104, 469.71225, 476.5152, 483.66024, 491.09508, 498.86109, 506.8602
deaths revolution, .038 , .037!1905, .034!1910 , .038 , .050 , .054 , .056 , .051 , .046 , .033 , .037, .028, .033!1920 , .032!1925 , .036 , .038 , .036, .031!1930 , .028!1935 , .025!1940
deaths reform counterfactual , .038 , .037!1905, .034!1910 , .033!1917, .037, .028, .033!1920 , .032!1925 , .031!1930 , .028!1935 , .025!1940
age structure 1895 stable male pop, .0384, .0338, .0315, .0300, .0289, .0281, .0274, .0268, .0262, .0257, .0251, .0246, .0241, .0236, .0231, .0226, .0221, .0216, .0211, .0205, .0200, .0195, .0189, .0184, .0179, .0174, .0169, .0164, .0159, .0154, .0149, .0144, .0139, .0134, .0130, .0125, .0121, .0116, .0112, .0108, .0104, .0100, .0096, .0092, .0088, .0084, .0081, .0077, .0073, .0070, .0066, .0063, .0060, .0057, .0053, .0050, .0047, .0044, .0041, .0038, .0036, .0033, .0030, .0028, .0025, .0023, .0021, .0018, .0016, .0015, .0013, .0011, .0010, .0008, .0007, .0006, .0005, .0004, .0003, .0002, .0002, .0001, .0001, .0001, .0001, .0000, .0000, .0000, .0000, .0000
qx male west e0=25 lower bound, .35160 , .11341 , .05924 , .03608 , .02399 , .01705 , .01288 , .01035 , .00887 , .00809 , .00779 , .00784 , .00812 , .00858 , .00915 , .00981 , .01053 , .01127 , .01203 , .01280 , .01356 , .01431 , .01505 , .01577 , .01648 , .01716 , .01783 , .01848 , .01912 , .01975 , .02037 , .02098, .02160, .02221, .02284, .02347, .02412, .02479, .02549, .02622, .02698, .02780, .02866, .02958, .03056, .03161, .03275, .03397, .03529, .03672, .03827, .03995, .04176, .04373, .04586, .04818, .05068, .05340, .05634, .05952, .06296, .06668, .07070, .07504, .07971, .08475, .09018, .09601, .10227, .10898, .11618, .12388, .13210, .14088, .15022, .16016, .17070, .18187, .19369, .20615, .21927, .23306, .24750, .26260, .27835, .29472, .31170, .32926, .34736, .36596, .5
qx male west e0=77 upper bound, .01348, .00057, .00042, .00035, .00031, .00028, .00026, .00024, .00023, .00022, .00022, .00022, .00023, .00024, .00028, .00033, .00039, .00047, .00054, .00060, .00065, .00068, .00069, .00068, .00067, .00065, .00063, .00062, .00061, .00061, .00062, .00064, .00067, .00072, .00077, .00084, .00091, .00100, .00110, .00122, .00135, .00150, .00166, .00185, .00205, .00229, .00255, .00284, .00317, .00353, .00394, .00440, .00491, .00548, .00612, .00684, .00764, .00853, .00952, .01063, .01188, .01326, .01480, .01653, .01845, .02059, .02297, .02563, .02858, .03186, .03551, .03955, .04404, .04901, .05451, .06060, .06731, .07470, .08284, .09178, .10158, .11229, .12398, .13669, .15049, .16542, .18151, .19879, .21728, .23698, .35
migration male net annual, -1.5, -1.5!1899, -4.0,-4.0!1904,-6.0,-6.0!1909,-12,-13,-15!1914,-26,-28!1919,-16,-16!1924,-14,-14!1929,15,25!1935,-3,-3!1940
crisis, .040!1895, .040!1940
end
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