Calibrating Paleodemography: The Uniformitarian Challenge...Turned
The Uniformitarian Hypothesis (Howell 1976):
Two kinds of “shoehorning”
Calibrate 3 collections of data against Coale & Demeny West
Method: Compare
1. Uniformitarian Models: effects of fertility and mortality on human populations
Demographers know: fertility has the biggest impact on population age structure (and on the age distribution of deaths). Next figure shows fertility effects:
Fertility has big effects on age structure of deaths
Great variations in mortality have small effect on age distribution of skeletons. The next figure shows mortality effects (stable populations):
Mortality offers a small target
Calibrate--combining great variations in both fertility and mortality The next figure provides stable population backdrop for skeletal data
PPT Slide
2. The Uniformitarian Challenge ...Turned: proportional hazard models of (a) stable populations, (b) Lerna (3600-4000 BP), and (c) Dallas (1915-45)
Whopper assumptions and faux hazard rates
Ancient Lerna & modern Dallas TX (African-Americans)--the uniformitarian challenge...turned
“Jaws” effect in skeletal materials (HNWH), but not historical sources.
European prehistoric populations also show “Jaws” effect
Regardless of ancestry, there is a consistent pattern of unprecedentedly high hazard rates from age 25-35 and beyond
Is conventional uniformitarianism wrong? Next slide: 19th c. Africa...
3. Simple ratios: a. Bocquet-Appel & Masset’s (1982) “Juvenility” index: D5-14/D20+
“Juvenility” index: Fertility has strong effects; mortality, weak
“Juvenility” index: 4 non-Amerindian populations (HNWH)
“Juvenility” index: HNWH North American data
“Juvenility” index: Meso and South American skeletal populations
Juvenility Index What does it say?
3. Simple ratios: b. Buikstra, Konigsberg & Bullington ratio (1986): D30+/D5+
Calibrating the Buikstra ratio, including 95% confidence interval
Native American collections show wide variation--most with GRR 6+
Meso- and South American sets--most with GRR 6+, except Marquez
Buikstra ratio: potential unrealized in practice
3. Simple ratios: c. Adult ratio: D35+/D20+
Calibrating the Adult ratio, including 95% confidence interval
Six of 13 HNWH Meso and South American collections look OK
One, perhaps two, of 9 HNWH look OK
Published North Americansets: 4 of 8 look OK
Published European/African sets: 2 of 7 OK
NE Cities--not credible (inmigrants) rural Mexican parishes OK
Adult ratio: potential unrealized in practice
4. Conclusions
Conclusions, I: 5 reasons why visuals reveal the uniformitarian turn (and statistics do not)
II: Paleodemography is methdologically challenged--remember Jaws!!!
III: Shoes and shoehorning
END
Email: rmccaa@tc.umn.edu
Home Page: http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa
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