Populate
Enhancements 2001

User's GuideWeb-browser hypertext compatible

  • Click here for a quick introduction to Populate
  • 17 enhancements, 1989-1999 (Note: coding of formulas remain unchanged)
  • Complete documentation is now on the web (context sensitive help remains at the ready while Populate is running)
  • Click here for an overview of the inverse projection method
  • List of publications using inverse projection
  • Glossary
  • Formulas
  • Menus and commands

    • Windows compatibilityPopulate works fine with Windows, but it requires knowing a couple of tricks, some of which may even surprise a Windows expert.
  • To start Populate from Windows Explorer (or the desktop)
    1. Open the Populate folder.
    2. Click on populate.com (to place a shortcut on the desktop, simply right click now and chose copy shortcut to desktop).
    3. After the simulation is complete, quitting populate returns control to Windows Explore (or the desktop).
  • Prepare data using EXCEL files as starting points:
    1. model.xls has comments to help with data prep; keep it open and handy while using the blank.csv template. The data are from Wrigley and Schofield's Population History of England, 1541-1871 and Lee's seminal 1974 article in Population Studies.
    2. blank.csv is ready for your data. Simply open the file from EXCEL. After entering the data in the template, first File Save As [name].csv and then File Close to release the file to Populate.
  • Paste Populate graphics or tables into Windows documents via the clipboard. With Populate and a Windows program (wp, powerpoint, spreadsheet, or graphics editor) both running
    1. Tap <PrtSc> in Populate (the key is near the numeric keypad on most keyboards)
    2. Segue to the windows program (either hold <Alt> and tap <Tab> or hold <Ctrl> and tap <Esc>; a windows program or menu appears)
    3. Left click the cursor where the graphic or table is to be placed; then right click and there it is. Segue back to Populate with <Alt>+<Tab>.
  • Access Populate results in a spreadsheet:
    1. When beginning Populate, make a mental note of the file where results are stored ("[name].out"--unless a different name was entered at the prompt)
    2. After a Populate simulation is complete, quit populate.
    3. Use Windows Explorer to rename the file to "[oname].csv"
    4. After starting the spreadsheet program, open the output file. Data will be placed in the proper cells, ready for analysis or graphing.
    • Annual projections To invoke the annual version, use Windows Explorer to open the populate folder. Click on "POP1.COM"

    POP1 projects a population year-by-year using the inverse method.

    When should an annual projection (POP1.COM) be performed instead of a five-year projection (POPULATE.COM)?
  • when annual data are of good quality
  • when mortality is highly variable from year to year
  • when fine precision is desired (and spurious precision is of no concern!)
  • when the projection period is less than 128 years

    When should POPULATE.COM be used instead of POP1.COM?
  • ALL other instances.

    • Preparing an annual data file for POP1.com To create an annual pop datefile, simply use NOTEPAD or a spreadsheet program to open a copy of the annual.pop file
  • type in the relevant birth, death, migration and total population series for the populations being studied into the file
  • Edit the "year" instruction, changing 5 to 1, and 20 age groups to 90.
    Example: year, 1539, 1659, 1, 2457, 31, 90
    Note that when annual is invoked, 90 age groups are computed. Note also that the maximum length of an annual projection is 128 years.
  • Include in the datafile unabridged Pxes or Qxes, also for 90 ages (see annual.pop)
  • Include an initial population age structure as well with 90 age groups (see annual.pop)

    Save the file with a new file name. Close the Windows program.

    Results.
  • Single year, single age statistics are written to output file
  • Single year, five year grouped ages are displayed on the screen

    • Sex Do two sex projections in a single session with POP1.COM. Invoke If Constant Sex and chose Male, Female or both.

    Select variables that have the appropriate birth and death streams for that sex and initial population. GRR and NRR are automatically adjusted to take into account sex ratio at birth. Thus, it is possible to compute a male GRR using only male births.

    Crisis mortalityIn a crisis, when the crude death rate suddenly increases by one-half or more, the inverse methodology fails.

    In crisis years in the past, relatively fewer deaths occur among infants and the elderly than in normal years. To take this into account, a ceiling may be set for normal mortality. Above the ceiling mortality is apportioned equally among all age groups.

    To invoke crisis mortality, use the comands: If Constant Crisis. Then, enter the maximum normal crude death rate per thousand population (e.g., .04).

    Inactive features in POP1.COM Some features were removed to keep the program within 64k:
  • Chart has been de-activated.
  • Learn/Record has been removed.
  • There are no unabridged life tables available, thus
  • "If Lifetable" is excluded in annual mode

    • Introduction *** User's Guide