1.
Jan 18-20 2.
Jan 25-27 3.
Feb 1-3 4.
Feb 8-10 5.
Feb 15-17 6.
Feb 22-24 7.
Mar 1-3 8.
Mar 8-10 9.
Mar 15-17 10.
Mar 22-24 11.
Mar 29-31 12.
Apr 5-7 13.
Apr 12-14 14.
Apr 19-21 15.
Apr 26-28 16. May 3-5 |
Department
of History
History
5011 Quantitative
Methods
for
Historical
Research
Spring
2010 945
Heller Hall Office Hours: Tuesday-Thursday after
class |
1. Methods and
statistics We will move
quickly through a gloss of the usual topics of elementary statistics
(percentages, means, basic probability and tests of statistical significance,
bivariate regression and correlation) and then turn to more advanced topics
of special significance for historians (e.g., sample designs, family
reconstitution, multiple standardization and demographic decomposition,
indexes, measures of inequality, and logistic regression). You will not end
up an expert on any of these topics, but you should at least get an intuitive
sense of what they are about and how to find out more. 2. Data management,
software, and computers We will focus on
the use of SPSS for Windows and Microsoft Excel. We will also briefly cover
several other programs for quantitative analysis. The topics covered will
include design of data collections, data entry, analysis of microdata,
management of hierarchical data, making graphs, mapping, and techniques of
aggregate data analysis. 3. Principles of
measurement and presentation of quantitative information These
often-neglected topics are the heart of the course. They include the
principles and philosophy of measurement, research designs and data sources,
and aesthetic considerations in the presentation of quantitative findings.
Choosing what to measure and how to measure it is an art, and the most
advanced statistics in the world won't help you if you haven't got it right.
Frequently, clever measurement strategies can actually save you from having
to use fancy statistics. Presentation is just as important, especially for
historians because our audience is often innumerate. Measurement and
presentation issues will permeate all aspects of the course, and will be the
sole focus of several classes. 4. Literature of
quantitative history We will
occasionally have a discussion of several quantitative historical articles. I
will distribute these articles in advance. The readings for most of the
quarter are not set in stone; we will tailor them to the substantive
interests of the class. The class will meet
in 628 Social Sciences, which was once the History Department Computer Lab. I
have scheduled the room for an extra hour each day for lab time to carry out your
assignments and so we will have time to pursue extra topics of interest to
particular students. On Tuesdays, the extra hour is before class (8:45-9:45) and on Thursdays, the extra hour is
after class (11:00-12:00). My office hours will be held during these extra
hours. Assignments The readings are
listed below. All readings are available online at no cost. The
hyperlinks following each article will get you the pdf if you are logged in
on campus. If you want to get access from home, you will have to either
save the article while on campus or authenticate through the library website and search for the journal or use the citation linker. There will be
three types of written assignments: 1. Statistics
and/or computer exercise. You should submit it via e-mail to ruggles@hist.umn.edu. Unless
otherwise specified, the assignments are die on Thursday of the week in
which they appear. 2. Table of the
Week. After the first few weeks, the homework will be a table or graph of
your choosing. You will prepare a table or graph with substantive
historical findings. 3. Research
project. In the latter half of the course, we will focus on substantive
historical research projects. The main product of your research will be a
poster. We will display the major findings in the famous Quantitative
History Poster Session at the end of the semester, which is widely attended
by faculty and students from several departments. Prizes will be awarded,
including the coveted "People's Choice Award," determined by
popular vote. Most of the
quantitative assignments will be based on the Integrated Public Use
Microdata Series (IPUMS), the fabulous general-purpose historical database
covering the United States from 1850 through 1990. The IPUMS was created
right here at the Minnesota Historical Census Projects. Students who wish
to use other data for their research projects should contact me right away. |
Schedule Week 1: Jan 18-20 Topics Comparisons
by Subtraction and by Division Denominators:
"At Risk" Populations and Levels of Measurement General
Strategies of Quantitative Research 2.
Introduction
to IPUMS website Historical Census Data from the University of
Minnesota 3.
Software:
SPSS for Windows Defining
Data Frequency
Distributions SPSS
Tutorial Readings Introduction to SPSS and IPUMS SPSS Step-by-Step Part
I, Chapter 1 SPSS
tutorial introduction IPUMS Introduction (skim), variable
availability (browse), and Instructions for
Extract System Margo Anderson, “Quantitative History,” The Sage Handbook of Social Science Methodology, edited by William Outhwaite and Stephen Turner (London: Sage Publications,
2007), 246-63. Assignment 1 1.
Click
here to download a dataset called MN1880.sav 2.
Open
the dataset by double-clicking on it. 3.
Scroll
around to look at the variables and cases available. 4.
Choose three variables, run frequencies,
interpret results. Week 2: Jan 25-27 Topics 1.
Computers
and Data. Aggregate vs.
Microdata: Levels of Analysis Ecological
Analysis 2.
Statistics:
Basic Descriptive Measures. 3.
Software:
SPSS for Windows. Descriptives,
Means Crosstabs;
row and column percents Weighted
Samples Readings:
Working with syntax
files. http://www.lrz-muenchen.de/~wlm/about.htm http://www.lrz-muenchen.de/~wlm/ein_spss.htm SPSS Step-by-Step
Part I, Chapter 2 Lawrence
Stone. 1979. “The Revival of Narrative: Reflections on a New Old History” Past & Present 85: 3-24. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/650677.pdf Assignment
1.
Register and make an extract from IPUMS ·
Choose
some variables 3.
Decompress data file [pre-decompressed file: data codebook spss] 4.
Open syntax file in SPSS and edit Data List command to add the correct
path. The first line of the command should
look like this: data list file
='c:\hist5011\usa_00047.dat'/ 5. Select Run All to run the syntax file and
read the data into SPSS. Week 3: Feb 1-3 Topics 1. The Decline
of Quantitative History 2. The Aesthetics of Table Design 3. Statistics:
Sampling, Sample Distributions, Basic Probability, Significance Testing. Reading: Daniel Scott Smith, Parental Power and Marriage
Patterns: An Analysis of Historical Trends in Hingham, Massachusetts. Journal
of Marriage and Family, Vol. 35, No. 3.
(Aug., 1973), pp. 419-428. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/350578.pdf Assignment Create a new IPUMS
extract. Use crosstabs to make an interesting table using IPUMS data for
multiple census years, using row percents or column percents. Use
weights as appropriate. Email the .spo file to me before class. Week 4: Feb 8-10 Topics 1. Review of Beautiful Tables 2.
Software:
SPSS (data) · Recoding Values and Selecting Cases ·
Missing
Values. 3.
Excel 4. Alternative Machine-Readable Data
Sources. Reading: Lutz K. Berkner, The Stem Family and the Developmental
Cycle of the Peasant Household: An Eighteenth-Century Austrian Example.
American Historical Review 77 (1975), 398-418. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/1868698.pdf Steven Ruggles, The Transformation of American
Family Structure. American Historical Review 99 (1994), 103-128. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2166164.pdf Assignments Table
of the week. Week 5: Feb 15-17 Topics 1. Significance Testing T-Tests,
Chi-Square http://math.hws.edu/javamath/ryan/ChiSquare.html 2.
Data Management I ·
Creating New Variables (compute, if, do
if). ·
Splitting
and Merging ·
Linking
spouses and parents Tiny
1880 file example.sps pointers Readings IPUMS
chapter 5, “Family
Interrelationships” The Bellesiles
Affair http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2944942.pdf http://chronicle.com/article/Did-the-Shootouts-Over/3861 http://hnn.us/articles/691.html http://www.oah.org/pubs/nl/2003feb/wiener.html Assignments Make
a table that uses a new variable constructed by combining two variables. Week 6: Feb 22-24 Topics 1.
Life-Course
and Cohort Measures. PowerPoint ·
Longitudinal
Data. ·
Cohorts
in Successive Cross-Section. ·
election
Biases and Censoring. ·
Family
Reconstitution. ·
Cohorts graph 2.
Methods: ·
Synthetic
Cohorts and Life-Course Analysis. ·
Period
and Cohort Measures of Fertility and Mortality. ·
Indirect
Period Measures of Age at Marriage, Age at Leaving Home, Years of Schooling. 3.
Data Management II ·
Lagging ·
Aggregate Readings Patricia
Kelly Hall and Steven Ruggles. 2004.“'Restless in the Midst of Their
Prosperity': New Evidence on the Internal Migration of Americans,
1850-2000," Journal of American History 91: 829-846. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/3662857.pdf Week 7: Mar 1-3 Topics Making graphs PowerPoint Readings http://www.salon.com/march97/tufte970310.html Assignments Make a nice graph Week 8:
Mar 8-10 Topics Statistics: Correlation,
Regression Week 9: Mar 15-17 (spring break) Week 10: Mar 22-24 Topics Standardization
and Indexes ·
Index
Numbers ·
Direct
Standardization Week 11: Mar 29-31 Topics Making
maps:
Kelsey McDonald, MPC Spatial Analysis Core http://www.pop.psu.edu/info-core/library/posters.htm http://www.cpc.unc.edu/services/infoserv/graphics/posters.html http://www.popassoc.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=3543 http://www.cpc.unc.edu/services/infoserv/graphics/2005_paa_posters http://www.pop.umn.edu/research/poster-presentations |
Maintained by: Steven
Ruggles, ruggles@umn.edu
Revised: January 2010
http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/hist5011
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