This text outline omits illustrations.
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Http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa
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PRB World Pop Sheet, 1997 (a quick lesson on hope and truth)
1997 5840 24 9 1.5 47 6,894 8,036 59 3.0
1992 5420 26 9 1.7 41 7,114 8,545 68 3.3
Demographic transitions in historical perspective: fertility, epidemiology, and mortality
The demographic transition paradigm
Fertility transitions: examples from Latin America
Mortality transition and the AIDS epidemic in historical perspective
Malthus, Marx, and Boserup vs. the Billions
Demographic transition in the contemporary world: theories, facts and trends (see handout)
Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup
Thomas R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798): Population increases geometrically; subsistence, arithmetically. Poverty is the result unless there is moral restraint.
Karl Marx, Das Kapital (1867): Each mode of production has its corresponding mode of reproduction.
Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup
Esther Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965), demographic pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labor (tools, better t
echniques).
Demographic transition: phase shifts in mortality and fertility
A post-modern phase?--low death rates, lower birth rates, negative growth rates.
Population (in millions) by world regions, 1950 - 95
Region 1950 1995 1975 1995
Latin Amer 164 481 2.7 1.9
Developed 832 1169 1.1 0.2
Fertility transitions in 15 countries: 1962-1995
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I. Fertility Transition: In Historical Perspective
Three fertility transitions in Latin America, compared with USA
Transitions, revolutions, baby booms, and busts: Cuba, Mexico & USA
Politics, fertility and transition in Mexico, 1895-1995
Cuban Revolution: Baby boom (1960-1970) and bust (1977-)
Fertility decline in Latin America, 1952 - 1992
Mexico’s fertility transition: 7 children in 1970 to 3.2 in 1992
Age patterns of fertility: USA, 1988 and 1970 vs. Mexico
Mexico’s fertility in 1971 lagged USA by a century
By 1992, Mexico lagged USA by 2 - 3 decades.
Fertility of married Mexican women by educational levels compared with natural fertility
The educational revolution will precipitate further declines in Mexican fertility rates
The fertility transition in China, Mexico, India, Bangladesh, and Nigeria: 1962-1995
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II. Epidemics: A Historical Perspective
The Age of Pestilence and Famine: an example from colonial Mexico
Second example, 1630-1930 (northern Mexico)
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III. Mortality Transition: In Historical Perspective
Mortality transitions: Examples from Latin America
Earlier and faster in Argentina, Uruguay, Cuba, and Costa Rica
Later and slower in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Peru
Slowest in Guatemala, much of Central America, and Haiti
Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, 4 LA countries (unequal in 1900; now converging)
The Mortality transition in Mexico: catching up with the USA
Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 3% in 1992 (still more than 3 times the US rate).
Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts in PDR 3/96)?
HIV/AIDS is a pandemic-- 20 million cases worldwide: 2/3rds in Africa, 20% in S & SE Asia.
AIDS deaths rates will continue to rise, reaching, by 2005, 0.3-0.4 per thousand population world-wide.
Behavioral change is the best hope; rates of increase in infection are slowing everywhere except in Asia.
Conclusions:
Minimal levels of economic and social development are sufficient to initiate the fertility transition.
Modest investments in preventive public health could improve quality of life and longevity in many regions of the globe.
The demographic explosion is nearly over everywhere, except in Africa.